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No Disrespect Intended, Mr. Wilson

When you are a fan of a team, it's really easy to grow attached to a player. But in the process of becoming a fan of a player, it is really easy to lose sight of that particular player's true value. Not just in the context of his value to his team, but also in the context of his value in the league as a whole.

One of the most interesting things to emerge from the clamor and commotion of this weekend's winter meetings was a rumor that floated around that the Blue Jays were interested in trading Alexis Rios for Craig Wilson. The rumor ended up being just that, a rumor. But the trade ended up generating a lot of discussion among Pirate fans. And to be honest, a lot of it surprised me.

When I first heard the rumor, my immediate reaction was that the Pirates should jump on it. I am a big Craig Wilson fan, but the opportunity to add a possible core player proved too good to pass up. That being said, I didn't get my hopes up. I had serious doubts about the validity of the rumor. Rios isn't Blue Jay GM J.P. Riccardi's favorite type of player, but he still has some tremendous upside (and more importantly, he is still very cheap). I didn't see the Jays giving him away too easily.

Whether it was true or not, it was still fun to speculate. Rumored trade scenarios always generate discussion, so I looked to various message boards to gauge the pulse of the Bucco faithful. I did not find what I expected to. Some saw the trade as I did, that the deal seemed like an excellent opportunity to roll the dice and possibly add a core player. But to my surprise, a vocal segment of fans hated the deal, and just couldn't understand trading away one of the few Pirate power threats.

I have to admit that I have a soft spot in my heart for Craig Wilson. I think he is a useful player and could help a team win some games. He seems to work hard and he made the most of his opportunity when it presented itself. That being said, there is no way in the world that I would call Craig a "core player". Or maybe more accurately, I don't think he should be a core player on any team with any kind of aspirations to be a contending team.

Again, I like Craig. I am not trying to put him down as a player. But it is very important, not only for fans but management as well, to make sure they recognize his true value. Is he an important part of the Pirates? Yes. Would it hurt to lose him? Sure. But it is important to remember that Pirates are not really a very good team. And the thing about "not very good teams" is that they are usually forced to put players in positions that they are under-qualified for. Craig is the Bucs' cleanup hitter, but could you imagine a contending team that had had him batting cleanup for them? How about fifth? I could see him hitting sixth (or better yet seventh), but any contending team with Wilson at cleanup (or fifth for that matter) would seriously be looking for an upgrade. Just because Craig is the Pirates' cleanup hitter, doesn't mean that he IS a cleanup hitter.

Craig reminds me a lot like Kevin Millar. They are similar players in a number of regards. Both have some pop. Both don't really have a true offensive position. Both have been known to go on serious hot streaks. And both have been know to go on extended slumps. Millar hits for a higher average, Wilson hits for more power. Both are important cogs for their respective teams. Both have endeared themselves to their fans with their play and personalities. You essentially know what you're getting with both players at this point in their careers. They might have good years and bad, but odds are they have both reached their potential.

The difference between the two players is that Wilson plays for a sub .500 team and Millar plays for a world champion. Wilson bats cleanup for the Bucs. Millar usually bats sixth or seventh (sometimes fifth, if injuries warrant). If Millar batted cleanup for the Red Sox it would be an indication that something terribly, terribly wrong was happening with the team. The only reason Wilson bats cleanup for the Bucs is because the team lacks a true cleanup hitter.

It's no secret that the Pirates are short on high-caliber talent. In my mind, we are missing a quality number three hitter and a quality cleanup guy. Jason Bay is an excellent five hitter and Craig fits nicely as a number six. Jack Wilson is an excellent eight hitter. But those number three and four guys are key. We don't have 'em and we ain't going to be a contender until we get them. Will Craig Wilson still be around by the time we do get them? I don't know. But at the right we are going, it doesn't look likely.

That's why I don't think we can hesitate if something like the Rios for Wilson deal ever comes up. I'm not saying Rios is a lock to be a stud -- no prospect is a lock. There is always risk. But, fortune favors the bold, and at some point you have to trust in your player development people to make the right decision. Legit three, four and five hitters are hard to come by. The Bucs don't have the resources to secure a proven one on the open market. That means we either have to develop our own (which we have been unable to do) or get one from another team before he's proven himself at the major league level (like we did with Bay). I say, if you have an opportunity to trade a six hitter to potentially get a core guy, you do it. If not, get used to living in the basement.

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I hear what you're saying about not overvaluing your players. It is nice to nave a guy like C-Wilson who came up thru the system and turned into a good ball player as opposed to the previous fiascos of has-beens (most notably Bell and Mondesi). The one thing I would disagree with you on is Rios' upside. I don't think he will ever have the pop that Craig has. I know he had a big winter league last year but the way he holds his hands at the plate he will need to drastically alter his approach to generate any kind of power in the bigs. Last year he held his own, but he was a 6'6" punch and judy hitter. I said the same thing when I saw Sean Burroughs approach three, four years ago.

I can definitely understand having doubts about Rios, I have some myself. It's true, he was a punch and judy hitter last year, but I still think he has the kind of upside worth taking a chance on. I usually prescribe to this theory (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/040719pulse.html) of projecting power. He makes contact and he just needs to mature to the point where he starts driving the ball consistently. I don't think he will ever have Craig's raw power, but I think he will probably be a better all-around ballplayer.

If you believe the scounting reports, Rios has "projectionable power" and I agree that the problem with "projectionable power" is that it sometimes fails to project. Before making a deal, Rios would definitely have to meet the scouting department's seal-of-approval. You gotta have some serious faith in those guys for deals like this to work.

Rios would come with risks, but I don't see Craig bringing in a potential core player who didn't have them. I would rather have a can't-miss type of guy, but I don't see us getting one of those guys for Craig straightup. If you decide to move Wilson, I think it would probably be in a deal involving a calculated gamble on a prospect like Rios. I can't really fault anyone who decides that the gamble on Rios just wouldn't add up. You might not agree he's the right player, but the thing I was trying to get across in my post is that I can't understand those who don't think its the right idea

One last thing.

It's probably a good thing the Rios thing never materialized. I do think he would take some patience -- probably two to three years. I don't see the team showing the kind of patience needed to cash in on a guy like him -- especially considering the team's current lack of power. I could see a repeat of the Jose Guillen situation, where the team gives up to him only to see him blossom elsewhere.

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