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The Prospects of our Prospects

About a year ago, my doctor informed me that my blood pressure was a bit on the high side for a guy my age and weight. I chalked up the news mostly to my job, which is deadline-driven and is often highly stressful (part of the job's attraction, actually). However, when I read articles like this from the Post-Gazette, I begin to realize that a great deal of my tension probably lies with the simple fact that I am a Pirate fan.

The article linked above is your standard Q & A with Pirate owner Kevin McClatchy. Nothing earth shattering and pretty much the answers you'd expect from the principal owner of a small market team that is coming off 12 losing seasons. Pretty innocuous. But sometimes even the most innocuous articles can contain small tidbits that can set one off. This is what did it for me:

People won't see what we're doing until they see John VanBenschoten and Zach Duke and Brad Eldred. When they see these guys, I think people will say, "Yeah, these guys are doing it the right way."

In the same paper, Paul Mayer states the following in his Pirates Q & A:

The days of Littlefield having to sign -- or trade for -- stopgap players are just about over. In fact, maybe this is the final winter he'll have to do that. The farm system should be ready to deliver regular talent by the start of the 2006 season -- outfielders Chris Duffy and Nate McLouth come to mind

Now here's why these statements get my knickers all in a twist. The Pirates have a good farm system. The keyword here is good. It is not a great farm system. And it certainly is not the kind of farm system that is indicative of a team "doing it the right way."

Littlefield has done an excellent job of stocking the system with quality arms. We have some serious pitching depth down on the farm right now. That is a good thing. However, despite our depth, the system lacks one or two true studs. Most of the guys we have project as middle-of-the-rotation type of guys. That is not a bad thing (especially if Oliver Perez proves to be a true ace). Pitching will always be at a premium, so its good to have a surplus of it. Unfortunately, quantity isn't always as valuable as quality. One or two potential aces are sometimes worth more than four or five middle of the rotation guys. Don't get me wrong, I like our young arms, but I am also careful not to over-estimate them.

Pitching is an important aspect of the game, unfortunately for the Pirates; it is not the only aspect. Offense is also an important part of the game, and in that area the Pirates farm system is woefully thin. This is why I want to pull my hair out when I hear people talking about the Bucs building through player development. It is an excellent idea, but is simply not happening. I hear these comments about how Littlefield's grand plan is on the verge of paying off, but I simply can't see how that could be. Granted, there is some encouragement on the way in terms of pitching, but where are guys we could potentially build around?

Some of the names mentioned above give me serious doubts about the organization's idea of player development. Chris Duffy?! Paul Meyer has pointed to Duffy twice in two weeks as an exciting sign of things to come. I just don't see it. How can anyone get excited about a leadoff hitter with little pop that strikes out too much? From all accounts, Duffy is an excellent defensive player and I am sure he could make a decent fifth outfielder. Good organizations do not point to Chris Duffy-type of players as potential building blocks.

Brad Eldred?! Look, I find his power as intriguing as anyone, but I don't think its wise to hang your hat on him. Eldred strikes out way too much and has the type of long swing that will get eaten alive at the major league level. Sure, he put up excellent numbers last year. And sure, his one asset (his power) is major league caliber (and desperately needed). However, everything else about him points to a marginal major league career. Think Russell Branyan; only Branyan was putting up similar numbers at similar levels when he was two years younger than Eldred.

Littlefield has thus far shown an inability to find and develop the kind of offensive players that you can build around. The warning signs were there early. During the 2002 draft, the Bucs selected Taber Lee in the third round. Taber Lee is a slick-fielding singles hitter. When you are a small market team, it is vitally important to bring in talent, and not just any talent. Small market teams need high-ceiling talent. You can still find high-ceiling talent in the third round of the draft. Taber Lee is not a high-ceiling talent. All glove/no bat infielders are a dime a dozen. Why waste a high draft choice on a guy like Taber Lee? Guys like Curtis Granderson (recently named the Tigers top prospect by Baseball America) and Val Majewski (who already got a taste of the bigs) were both selected in that round after the Pirates selected Lee. Guys like Elijah Dukes of the Devil Rays and Larry Broadway of the Expos/Nationals were also selected in that round after Lee. What hurts even more is the fact that the Lee pick was not made for financial reasons -- the Bucs gave him the third-highest signing bonus of the round -- $525,000. A half million dollars for the right to add Taber Lee to your organization.... inexcusable.

Hindsight is 20/20, and the draft definitely has an element of unpredictability to it. I am not picking on Littlefield for not drafting Granderson or Majewski instead of Lee. I am picking on Littlefield for not selecting guys like Granderson or Majewski instead of guys like Lee. Guys like Lee are almost worthless for a small market team. If you need them, they are much easier to find than a guy who could hit 20+ homers and knock in 100. Let's say that the Pirates had drafted a guy like Jason Cooper or David Jenson instead of Lee. Both of those guys were drafted in the third round that year and both have struggled to establish themselves. The pick would not have worked, but at least the potential was there to help their club. Lee never had that potential.

Hopefully, things are changing. Littlefield and the scouting department seemed to emphasize offense a bit more in last year's draft than in previous ones. We'll see if it pans out. Unfortunately, any benefits from a revised mindset will be a few years in coming. In the meantime, there are few legitimate offensive contributors on the horizon. It's possible that we may get lucky. I really like guys like Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit (provided he can stay healthy), but they probably wouldn't be top prospects in truly good farm system. That doesn't mean that those guys can't step up and be big contributors, it just means that a truly good farm system would have surer bets ahead of them. If we want to get surer bets in Pittsburgh -- players we can actually build around -- odds are we will have to trade some of our pitching depth to get it. That's one way a farm system can pay dividends, but I would feel better if there were better homegrown options on the way.

Guys like Eldred could very well beat the odds and prove me wrong. That’s not the point. The point is that smart organizations don't look at Brad Eldred and Chris Duffy types as raising stars. Those types of guys are interesting and they are definitely worth keeping on eye on, but it's not wise to count on them.

Building a top-notch player development system is essential for any small market team. McClatchy expressed an interest in "doing things the right way". Well, Oakland, Minnesota, Cleveland and Milwaukee are doing it the right way. I don't think the Pirates are at the point where they can say the same.

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Good post - you really got to the essence of (one of) the Pirates' problems, I think. It's not that Duffy's not a prospect or something, he's just not a terribly good one, and for the Pirates to be hanging their hat on him after so many years of great draft positions is not good. Even the much-ballyhooed pitching depth is not all that great. Duke is a good prospect, but I wonder if he'll be able to get by with his stuff in the majors. Snell and Gorzellany look good. Van Benschoten and Bradley are looking okay, at best. Bullington (!) isn't looking like a big league starter. Burnett and Maholm are hurt. Etc.

Oh, and that's a nice, gutsy call on Milwaukee. They're going to be flying above the Pirates soon, perhaps as soon as 2005.

I would have kept JVB in RF. At the point they drafted him they did not have any impact bats in the system. I know they said that they thought he had some holes in his swing, but now they're hanging their hat on Eldred.

Does anyone else thinks that it is interesting that Billy Beane dumpted Mulder and Hudson after taking on Kendall's contract?

meyer could have written the same crap in 1996 and replaced duffy, et al with hermanson, nunez, and a slew of other never-could-have-beens.

if wishful thinking won baseball games, paul meyer would be the league mvp.

Yeah... and Hermansen was a WAY better prospect than Duffy, too. It's not even close.

Trav: I too wonder what Beane is thinking. I have no idea. But I think it was interesting that when the Mulder trade was announced, the A's players were saying that although they weren't sure what Billy was doing, they were sure he was up to something. It was remarkable, actually. I've never seen players express that sort of confidence in a GM. It would be nice to feel the same way when Littlefield made a weird move.

Excellent summary. Thanks to Charlie for pointing me here.

The Pirates act as though they can become successful *solely* by developing pitching and defense. There are very, very few organizations - none that I can think of off the top of my head - that have ever done that. Even pitching-rich organizations like Atlanta and Oakland haven't gone entirely to the pitching-and-defense route - while they may focus on their pitchers, they always remember to pull in hitters (the Andy Martes and Nick Swishers of the world, to name two). And the organizations that have been successful with relatively limited budgets - like Minnesota and (to a lesser extent) Cleveland - have done so primarily by getting hitters into the organization. It is *less* expensive in the long run to develop your own hitters and trade for pitching and defense than it is to go the other way - and if the Pirates were really interested in anything other than short-term profit for the owners, they'd be doing just that.

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