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Who's on Second?

From all indications, the Bucs roster still has some shaking out to do. It sounds like the team may add another bat and I wouldn't be surprised if a veteran arm or two was pulled off the scrap heap to compete for a spot on the staff.

Yet with all of this uncertainty, I find myself becoming more and more interested in one of the few positions that should be more or less settled -- second base. Last year, Jose Castillo made the jump from AA to start 105 games at second. Considering the difficulty of such a jump, he didn't do too bad. So why am I not more excited about the prospect of Castillo being the Pirates' everyday second baseman?

While Castillo had a decent year for a 23 year old guy skipping AAA, but taken on its own merits it was not a very good year. He struckout 92 times in only 383 ABs, had a sub-.300 OBP and an .666 OPS that was as unholy as the number would suggest. He showed the skills to be a plus defensive second baseman (including an aptitude for the double play pivot), but his .799 zone rating ranked near the bottom of all qualifying players at the position (for context, lead-gloved Alfonso Soriano also had a .799 zone rating).

None of these negatives would normally get me too carried away. Young players tend to strike out a lot and they also tend to have poor fielding stats. If they got the right stuff, they usually improve with a few years under their belts. It is a rare thing for a 23 year old to come up to the bigs as a polished ballplayer. My concern with Castillo is that I am unsure what his ultimate upside is. As he made his way up the minor league ladder, Castillo showed the pop and speed that could be an asset in the middle of the infield. However, he also showed signs of potentially being a very frustrating player. Last year's strikeout total was definitely not a fluke. Castillo struckout 92 or more times in every full-season he played of professional ball.

Normally I would put my reservations aside and advocate pencilling Castillo in for as many at bats as he could handle. Roll the dice and see what happens. The problem is, the Pirates have a viable alternative waiting in the wings in Freddy Sanchez. In some ways, Sanchez is the anti-Castillo. Where Castillo is a free-swinger, Sanchez has displayed a tremendous batting eye. Where Castillo gets enamored with the long ball, Sanchez prefers to merely put the ball in play. Where Castillo has been known to run really hot or really cold, Sanchez is usually steady as a rock. And where Castillo represents tantalizing potential, with Sanchez what you see is pretty much what you are going to get.

Conventional wisdom would say that going with Castillo over Sanchez is the smart choice. Teams like the Pirates need as much talent they can get. The problem is that the Pirates also need guys who know how to get on base, and Freddy Sanchez is that kind of guy. Before last season's injury-plagued season, Sanchez had a career .323 batting average (and a career .385 OBP) over 1409 minor league at bats. Of course, he also hit only 16 home runs over that same span -- a number Castillo matched in a single season twice. Surprisingly enough, despite the home run gap, Sanchez still had a higher slugging percentage over their minor league careers (.446 to .415). Sanchez is a professional hitter. I have no doubt in my mind that he could hit for average and get on base at a good clip at the major league level if given a chance. The problem is that his window for getting that chance is quickly running out -- Sanchez is 27 years old.

It's a classic dilemma. Do you go with the guy with obvious potential (but with some glaring deficiencies), or the steady guy who has some helpful skills but who will probably never become a superstar? It's the kind of decision that makes a player development department earn its money. If only both players could play everyday the solution would be easy, but there are only so many at bats to go around. There has been some idle talk about moving one of the players to third (most likely Castillo), but that doesn't seem like an attractive proposition. If he reaches his offensive potential, Castillo projects as an above-average offensive second baseman. At third he would be merely average or worse. Nope. It looks like its going to have to be one or the other.

Complicating the matter is the fact that both players had encouraging performances in the winter league. In fact, they both hit .364. Sanchez had a typical Sanchez-like performance in the Arizona Fall League, displaying patience at the plate with good gap power. Castillo's stint in the Venezuelan Winter League was even more impressive. Castillo belted 10 homers and 14 doubles in only 214 at bats. If that performance is a sign of things to come, then perhaps Castillo could hit enough to play third. I am waiting to see a few glimpses at the major league level before I am sold.

It will be interesting to see what happens this spring. I am guessing that the Bucs will end up going with Castillo, and that may very well be the right choice. Still, I look at the skills that Sanchez could bring to the table, and I just wish there was a way to give him a chance to see if he could help the team.

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I actually wouldn't mind seeing the Pirates send Castillo back to AAA this year. He looked overmatched almost the entire year last year and would probably benefit from the extra year down there. (This is not a strategy I advocate most of the time the Pirates do it, but unlike, say, J.R. House, Castillo hasn't had a really good season above A-ball yet.) I think Sanchez (who just turned 27, not 28, by the way) will probably outperform both Castillo and Wigginton this year and should be given a shot.

Thanks for the correction, Charlie (damn my math). I edited my entry to reflect Castillo's current age.

Personally, I am just not sure what the Bucs should do in this situation, and it's all because I just don't have a good feel for what kind of player Castillo ultimately projects as. I think I have a good idea of what kind of ballplayer Sanchez can be, but Castillo still seems so raw.

If I felt Castillo projected as a plus-infielder across the board, I would advocate leaving him in the lineup. If he's gotta take his lumps, let get it over with as soon as possible. However, if I felt he projected as merely an adequate regular, I wouldn't mind replacing him with Sanchez.

Castillo is the type of player that can drive you nuts. He seems "projectionable", but projectionable doesn't always pay off.

I don't know what Castillo will be either, but I don't see why there needs to be a dilemma about it, really - whatever Castillo will eventually be, he won't be that next year. I don't see how another year at AAA will hurt him, and it might actually help him. And it serves another legitimate purpose: to give a chance to another young player.

Castillo is one of those guys whose performance may or may not match his physical gifts. I saw him a lot in the minors, including about 15 times in his big year in high A. I don't have any trouble seeing why the Pirates think he has a very high ceiling, both offensively and defensively. The big question is whether his strike zone judgment will ever matching his raw hitting ability. (I'm pretty confident he'll be a well-above-avg. defensive 2B.) I don't really know much about Sanchez beyond the stats, but taking age into account, Castillo probably has a much greater upside, with a much lower chance of reaching it. I'm not going to fault the Bucs for taking a chance on a guy like that.

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