Pirates Draft Win Shares 1990-2000, Part II
In my last post,, I setup how we would evaluate the Pirates' drafts from 1990 to 2000 using Bill James' Win Shares system. I decided to use Win Shares because it would give us a quick and easy way to measure the major league impact of the players signed from each year's draft crop. Why stop at the 2000 draft you may ask? Well, because the more recent drafts are still too much of a work-in-progress to evaluate effectively with this method yet (perhaps if I am still doing this blog in ten years, I can revisit those drafts). If you want to get a good overview of the more recent drafts, take a look at Wilbur Miller's excellent writeup.
For each year, I have tallied the Win Shares compiled by players signed from that year's draft. I also break that number down by Win Shares compiled in a Bucs' uniform so we can see if other teams cashed in on Pirate drafts more than the Pirates. In addition, it's important to note that some of these numbers are subject to change. There are still a number of players that are still active, especially in more recent years, so their totals will continue to grow until they hang up the cleats. Still, while this study is far from complete, it will still give a good idea of the quality of the Pirate drafts.
Okay? Here we go.
1990 DRAFT
Total Win Shares: 195 (125 for Pirates)
PLAYERS WHO REACHED THE MAJORS:
Kurt Miller (1st Round)
Win Shares: 1 (0 for Pirates)
Kevin Young (7th Round)
Win Shares: 80 (77 for Pirates)
Rich Robertson (9th Round)
Win Shares: 14 (0 for Pirates)
Brian Shouse (13th Round)
Win Shares: 6 (0 for Pirates)
Jeff McCurry (14th Round)
Win Shares: 5 (2 for Pirates)
Rick White (15th Round)
Win Shares: 44 (9 for Pirates)
Mark Johnson (20th Round)
Win Shares: 23 (19 for Pirates)
Keith Osik (24th Round)
Win Shares: 22 (18 for Pirates)
PLAYERS ACTIVE IN 2004:
Rick White (CLE), Keith Osik (BAL)
SUMMARY:
First round (and fifth overall) pick Kurt Miller became one of the poster boys for the dangers of drafting high school hurlers early in the draft. Miller's flameout was inconsequental to the Pirates since they shipped him out before his serious arms problems to bring Steve Buechele in for one of the team's pennant runs.
The best player the team drafted was Kevin Young, but interestingly, he didn't really start to pay off until he was released by the team and the Royals. When he did begin to contribute, the team tied him up in a ridiculous contract that tied up valuable money in a limited player. Rick White and Keith Osik are still kicking around in limited roles, the former has a chance to break camp with the Bucs this spring.
1991 DRAFT
TOTAL WIN SHARES: 121 (40 for Pirates)
PLAYERS WHO REACHED THE MAJORS:
Matt Ruebel (3rd Round)
Win Shares: 2 (2 for Pirates)
Tony Womack (7th Round)
Win Shares: 113 (38 for Pirates)
Marc Pisciotta (19th Round)
Win Shares: 6 (0 for Pirates)
PLAYERS ACTIVE IN 2004:
Tony Womack (STL)
SUMMARY:
What a dismal draft. Tony Womack was a contributor on two World Series teams, but Ruebel and Pisciotta made only limited major league contributions. The rest of the draft, including top pick Jon Farrell, was a collection of busts. Interestingly, the team drafted two guys who would later be chosen in the first round in 1994 but obviously failed to sign them (Dustin Hermanson in the 39th round and Paul Wilson in the 57th round). They also failed to sign future major leaguers Jason McDonald (15th round) and Jim Brower (56th round).
1992 DRAFT
TOTAL WIN SHARES: 228 (220 for Pirates)
PLAYERS WHO REACHED THE MAJORS:
Jason Kendall (1st Round)
Win Shares: 164 (164 for Pirates)
Danny Clyburn (2nd Round)
Win Shares: 0 (0 for Pirates)
Trey Beamon (2nd Round)
Win Shares: 2 (1 for Pirates)
Sean Lawrence (6th Round)
Win Shares: 0 (0 for Pirates)
Dennis Konuszewski (7th Round)
Win Shares: 0 (0 for Pirates)
Gary Wilson (18th Round)
Win Shares: 0 (0 for Pirates)
Chance Sanford (27th Round)
Win Shares: 0 (0 for Pirates)
Kevin Polcovich (30th Round)
Win Shares: 9 (9 for Pirates)
Lou Collier (31st Round)
Win Shares: 16 (9 for Pirates)
Marc Wilkins (47th Round)
Win Shares: 20 (20 for Pirates)
Adrian Brown (48th Round)
Win Shares: 17 (17 for Pirates)
PLAYERS ACTIVE IN 2004:
Jason Kendall (PIT), Lou Collier (PHI), Adrian Brown (KC)
SUMMARY:
The selection of Jason Kendall in the first round, arguably the best catcher in club history, makes this draft a winner almost all by itself. Unfortunately, despite the Kendall selection, this draft represented some serious missed opportunities. The Pirates had four picks out of the first 61, but aside from Kendall, none lived up to their potential. Shon Walker never got near the majors, while Danny Clyburn and Trey Beamon managed only limited playing time. Ironically, the team had better success in the later rounds. Kevin Polcovich (30th Round), Lou Collier (31st Round), Marc Wilkins (47th Round) and Adrian Brown (48th Round) all contributed to various degress in reserve roles.
1993 DRAFT
TOTAL WIN SHARES: 45 (38 for Pirates)
PLAYERS WHO REACHED THE MAJORS:
Jermaine Allensworth (1st Round)
Win Shares: 23 (21 for Pirates)
Kevin Pickford (2nd Round)
Win Shares: 0 (0 for Pirates)
Kane Davis (13th Round)
Win Shares: 5 (0 for Pirates)
Chris Peters (37th Round)
Win Shares: 17 (17 for Pirates)
PLAYERS ACTIVE IN 2004:
None
SUMMARY:
More missed opportunities. This time the team had five of the first 64 picks and not one made any significant contributions. The Bucs' first pick, Charles Peterson, and sandwich pick Andy Rice never made it to the show, while second round pick Kevin Pickford only managed a cup of coffee. Chris Peters gave a little something for a 37th round pick, but not enough to make up for the early round busts.
1994 DRAFT
TOTAL WIN SHARES: 17 (17 for Pirates)
PLAYERS WHO REACHED THE MAJORS:
Jimmy Anderson (9th Round)
Win Shares: 17 (17 for Pirates)
PLAYERS ACTIVE IN 2004:
Jimmy Anderson (BOS, CHC)
SUMMARY:
This might be the worst draft of the decade, Jimmy Anderson was the lone player signed to make the majors. First round pick Mark Farris didn't take to baseball. After four frustrating years with the Bucs, he left the organization to play quarterback for the Aggies of Texas A & M. The other busts were not as colorful. Guys like Roger Goedde, Aaron France, Bryan Farson, Eddie Brooks, and
Mike Asche never made much of an impression.
1995 DRAFT
TOTAL WIN SHARES: 20 (8 for Pirates)
PLAYERS WHO REACHED THE MAJORS:
Chad Hermanson (1st Round)
Win Shares: 3 (3 for Pirates)
Bronson Arroyo (3rd Round)
Win Shares: 17 (5 for Pirates)
Alex Hernandez (4th Round)
Win Shares: 0 (0 for Pirates)
Brian O'Connor (11th Round)
Win Shares: 0 (0 for Pirates)
PLAYERS ACTIVE IN 2004:
Hermansen (TOR), Arroyo (BOS)
SUMMARY:
If the 1994 draft was the decade's worst, the 1995 draft was one of the most disappointing. This draft held promise early, but most of the prospects failed as they went up the minor league ladder. First pick Chad Hermanson made several appearances on Baseball America's annual Top 100 prospect list, but as he neared the majors, his weaknesses became exposed. Garrett Long and Alex Hernandez held varying degrees of potential, but both never did much past AA. Third round pick Bronson Arroyo put up impressive minor league statistics, but struggled in brief stints with the big ciub. He was released and later played a role in the Red Sox's title run last year.
In our next installment, we will look at the drafts for the second part of the decade.
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Really excellent work. The thing I'd be curious about, of course, is what the average draft produces. Heh heh.
<__trans phrase="Posted by:"> Wilbur Miller | February 18, 2005 6:19 PM
You are an evil, evil man.
Kidding aside, thanks for the kudos and you are absolutely right. On its own, this study is interesting but needs to be put into the context of the league. I can see this becoming a pet project of sorts, but with spring training getting under way I it may be some time before I can get my act together enough to extend this study. I doubt this will be the last we see of draft winshares on this site.
<__trans phrase="Posted by:"> trev | February 19, 2005 3:13 PM