So what does it all mean? In the last few entries (part one, part two and part three) I broke down the Pirates' drafts from 1990-2000 using win shares. Here are the decade's drafts break down by total win shares:

As expected, the win share totals tail off towards the end of the decade. In the later drafts, the prospects are just starting to establish themselves and will likely bump up the win share totals with a few years of experience. What is noticeable is just how much the win share totals drop off after 1992. The first three drafts were respectable, but there is huge drop-off starting in 1993. 1993, of course, is a dreaded year in recent Bucs' history -- the first year of the current 12 year losing streak.

If the drafts of the early part of decade were the organization's most productive, they also presented several missed opportunities. In the first four drafts, the team had 8 first round picks (including sandwich picks) and six second round picks for compensation from departing free agents. of those 14 picks only Jason Kendall (first round pick, twenty-third overall, in 1992) had any long-term value. Kendall gave great value, but an excellent opportunity to replenish the organization was wasted.

It also interesting to break the draft win shares down by scouting director. Jack Zduriencik's three drafts compiled 394 win shares, the drafts for all other scouting directors for the decade totaled 363 win shares (to date). Zduriencik was highly regarded at the time, but was cut loose in 1993 after he had philosophical differences with new GM Cam Bonifay. Paul Tinnell and Leland Maddox never had the same success. Time will tell in judging Mickey White's drafts.

So what's next? While the win share totals in this study are interesting, they really need some kind of league context. The next step would be to compile win shares for the drafts of other teams. Then, we could find out who had the best draft in a given year and who had the worst. We would also be able to figure out how many win shares constitute an average draft. I do have plans to take those next steps, but with spring training getting under way, I don't see it happening anytime soon, but I expect to update as time permits. Perhaps some enterprising bloggers for other teams could pick up the gauntlet and do a similar study for their own team (hint, hint).