Ryan's Song
Earlier this week, rumor-meister John Perrotto of the Beaver County Times reported that the Bucs were reportedly considering trading Ryan Vogelsong for the New York Mets' Aaron Heilman. Perrotto positioned it as a classic change-of-scenery deal, as both players have struggled to realize their potential.
There is no denying that Vogelsong has failed to live up to the high expectations placed upon him. He has been wildly inconsistent -- and has thus far been incapable of holding onto a job in the starting rotation. Worse, he had a sluggish start this spring training (until the nice start against the Yanks this afternoon). I chalk some of Vogelsong's ineffectiveness this spring to tinkering. He has been working on a split finger fastball (to replace his mediocre changeup), and from all accounts it has quite a ways to go before it can be considered as another weapon in his arsenal.
When he is on, Vogelsong has the stuff to compete at the major league level. You look at his 6-13 record last year and his 6.50 ERA and its easy to forget that Vogelsong compiled 11 quality starts in 26 tries. By comparison, Kip Wells had 11 quality starts in 24 tries and Josh Fogg had 13 quality starts in 33 tries (that nugget courtesy Rotoworld.com). The problem is that Vogelsong was god awful in his other starts.
If I were the Pirates' I would think twice before letting Vogelsong go, especially for a guy like Heilman (whom I am not particularly fond of). I think Vogelsong should be penciled into a long relief/emergency starter role. He seems to do better when he can cut loose coming out of the pen. Let him gain some confidence and learn how to pitch, instead of throw. Leave him in that role for the foreseeable future. Perhaps he will earn a spot in the rotation in a year or two. Perhaps, he will prove more useful in the pen. Regardless, I think he can provide some value for the organization.
I am not so sure that you could say the same about Heilman. Heilman strikes me as the type of guy that needs to start to be his most effective. The problem is, I have some doubts that even at his most effective that he would warrant a spot in the rotation.

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Don't most bad starters mix good outings with horrible ones, though? Jimmy Anderson did that, too - he'd have a great start where he completely shut down the opposition, and then have two horrible ones where he couldn't get out of the second inning. That doesn't mean Anderson was a good pitcher, though. I realize Vogelsong has much better stuff than Anderson, but the odds that V. will ever pull it together as a starter are slim. I don't love Heilman or anything, but there's some upside there. I'd make that trade in a second.
<__trans phrase="Posted by:"> charlie | March 17, 2005 5:01 PM