There are many ways a team can obtain talent. Trades and free agent signings are the sexiest ways. They get the headlines and generate tons of barroom discussion. Personally, while trades and free agency get the glory, I have always been an amateur draft man.

Many casual fans find the amateur draft to be too huge and esoteric to follow closely. There are usually 50-odd rounds. Most of the players (aside from the first round or two) are unknown to all but the most diehard of fan. And there is rarely no immediate payoff. A drafted player could take three or four years before he even begins to sniff major league playing time. But the draft is where winners are made. This is especially true for small market teams, who usually don't have the resources to bring in high-priced free agents.

It's no secret that the Pirates have been on the wrong end of a .500 winning percentage for over a decade. Poor drafting has played a large part of that. That much is obvious, but let's take a "scientific" look (and I use that term loosely) at the problem to see just how things have gone wrong.

For this study, we will be reviewing the Pirates' drafts from 1990 to 2000. I decided to evaluate each year's draft based on the major league contributions of the players the Pirates drafted (and signed) that year. To measure those contributions, I used Bill James' Win Shares player evaluation system.

I've been looking for a reason to play around with Win Shares for some time. It's a bit of a freakshow stat, but it's a fun freakshow stat. For the uninitiated, Win Shares represents a player's contributions to their team's wins as a simple integer. The beauty of the system is that it allows you to compare players regardless if they are a hitter or pitcher; a star or bench player; or a slugger or a defensive whiz. In addition, Win Shares are adjusted for park effects and for differences in era. The result is a simple way to measure players. Want to get a sense of a player's contributions to a team over three seasons? Simply add up the Win Shares. Want to evaluate a trade? Simply add up the Win Shares that each player earned for their new teams.

The problem with Win Shares is that it requires an incredibly complex series of equations to figure them out. Luckily, they are brave souls that are willing to do the heavy lifting for us. The first source is the 2002 book Win Shares by Bill James and Jim Henzler. This explains the stat and lists Win Shares for every player from 1876 to 2001. The Bill James Handbook 2005 also lists Win Shares for all active players who played last year, including their Win Shares for the previous ten years. There is also an online project publishing Win Shares, currently located at The Hardball Times. All of these sources were used in one form or another to get the Win Shares for players drafted by the Pirates from 1990 to 2000.

Okay, enough with the yap-yap. In the next installment, we'll get to the results. Stay tuned.

<__trans phrase="Posted by"> <__trans phrase="at"> 9:37 PM | <__trans phrase="Permalink">

Some quick hits:

Payroll Made Public: Jeff Tripodi of Let's Go Bucs has compiled a comprehensive chart of the Pirates' salary obligations for the next five years. What a player HAS made is pretty easy to find, but if you want to know what a player WILL make over the next couple of years you have to do some serious digging. That makes the list Mr. Tripodi compiled all the more impressive. A tip of the hat for a reference source I plan on using quite extensively.

Mike Gonzalez Reevaluated: It's somewhat of an understatement to say that Mike Gonzalez is one of the Bucs' bright spots in the bullpen. The 26 year old Texan is one of baseball's most desired commodities -- a power lefty. At first glance, his numbers would suggest he was nearly unhittable in 2004. He held opposing hitters to a .201 batting average and a paltry .489 OPS. Many Pirate observers, including myself, wondered why the team brought back aging Jose Mesa instead of giving Gonzalez a shot. Well, according to Baseball Graph's Studes, the numbers don't tell the whole story with Gonzalez. Using a calculation called Wins Probability Added (WPA) (explained here) Studes explains that Gonzalez had a good year in 2004, but not so much when the game was on the line. He blew several leads spectacularly with inherited runners. The study illuminates that Gonzalez might not be quite ready to be the main man out of the pen. Not surprising, considering his inexperience, but even so, I still don't like re-signing Mesa.

Deals Dead?: Pirate beat writer Dejan Kovacevic created quite the stir among the Bucco faithful when he speculated that the Pirates were making a run at Aubrey Huff, Austin Kearns or Eric Byrnes. Since then, Reds GM Dan O'Brien has announced that Kearns is not on the market, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (subscription only) called any Huff trade speculation "overblown" and Eric Byrnes has signed a one-year deal with the Athletics to avoid arbitration. Now, none of these things necessarily preclude any of those guys getting dealt, but as I said before, I just don't see any of them coming to Pittsburgh. I still the team looking at a guy like the Twins' Restovich. But, if you are going to go that route, I think they should be targeting someone like the Oriole's Val Majewksi -- a guy who: (A) is cheap; (B) has upside; and (C) could be blocked on his current team.

Take a Look at Albaladejo: Pirate farmhand, Jonathan Albaladejo had pitched extremely well in the Puerto Rican League this off-season, but his hot streak came to an end last night in the Caribbean Series. Pitching for Puerto Rico's Mayaguez, Albaldejo got lit up by the Dominican Republic team. Read the write-up here and be sure to check out the video profile of Albaladejo linked on the same on the page.

<__trans phrase="Posted by"> <__trans phrase="at"> 8:11 AM | <__trans phrase="Permalink">

Baseball's amateur draft is still months away, but the prospect watch has begun in earnest. Baseball America has released its first peek (subscribers only) at the how the first round could play out and it looks good for the black and gold. Unlike last year, this draft is deep in talent, especially from the college ranks. It's looking better and better that the Bucs will have some talent to choose from when they draft with the 11th selection overall.

When it comes to the draft, I am not one who advocates drafting by need. I think teams that draft for need often times get themselves in trouble by over-drafting a guy, or worse, passing on a superior talent just to fill a hole. The lag time between when a prospect gets drafted, and when he makes the majors (that is, if he makes the majors) can be a year or two in the most optimistic of scenarios. Most players take much longer. The strengths and weaknesses of a major league team can change so much in that time. By the time the player reaches the bigs, the need may not exist anymore. The draft should be used to broaden a team's talent base. If it pans out, talent has value -- either for the home team or in a possible trade.

All that being said, it is nice when "best talent available" happens to coincide with "need". The Bucs need major league-ready bats and this draft has 'em. The Pirates have not drafted a colege bat with their first pick, since they took Jeff King first overall in 1986 and Barry Bonds in 1985. I think the time is ripe.

At this stage, BA has Ole Miss slugger Stephen Head going to the Bucs at number 11. Head has one of the finest swings in the college ranks and BA points to him as one of the prospects closest to the the majors. Basically, he is a perfect fit for the Pirates. Stanford First baseman/Outfielder John Mayberry Jr. is slotted in at twelve and he would also make a fine pick if Head goes off the board. Mayberry is athletic, can hit, and has the bloodlines that scouts love. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman of Virginia (slotted at number 10 by BA) is another interesting name. He hits for average and is a plus fielder. He hasn't shown alot of pop yet, but the scouts believe it will come.

This list, while a nice preview, is very premature. The college season is just getting underway and players' stocks will rise and fall quite a bit as the season progresses and the draft draws closer. It is quite possible that all three of the players listed above will be off the board by the time the Pirates make their selection. Likewise, it is entirely possible that players currently lower on the list will surge and become legitimate mid-round picks. The nice thing about these early lists is that it gives fans some names to keep an eye on, especially when the College World Series rolls around. It's never too early to get a look at the next Pirate.

<__trans phrase="Posted by"> <__trans phrase="at"> 8:00 AM | <__trans phrase="Permalink"> | <__trans phrase="Comments"> (2)

Dejan reports that the Bucs are now actively looking to bolster their offense through a trade now that Jeromy Burnitz has signed with the Cubs. The interesting thing about the report is the list of names bandied about as possible targets: Austin Kearns, Aubrey Huff and Eric Byrnes. To me, Kearns and Huff (and Byrnes to a lesser extent) are much more attractive acquisitions than a guy like Burnitz. They are all younger and all have a chance to actually get better in the future. The question I have is, if these possibilities legitimately exist, why even bother exploring the Burnitz route in the first place?

As Charlie accurately points out, this list of names might just be a heady case of wishful thinking on Mr. Kovacevic's part. All three of the names listed above have been widely reported as "available" in a number of media sources, but are they truly on the Bucs' radar? Kearns is my favorite out of the three. He is coming off a tough year and has been beset by injuries the last two years. But when you are a small market team you have to look to "buy low and sell high". Kearns wouldn't even be available if not for his recent struggles, and I think his talent and upside are worth the risk. My concern is the Reds' asking price. I don't think we should trade Zach Duke, but I think he might be the only pitching prospect that gets the deal done.

Huff offers other problems. He's due to make a ton of money and I can't see the Pirates coughing up the dough (almost $12 million over two years). He's an established offensive player -- which is something the Bucs sorely need -- but will they cough up the dough (in addition to the prospects) to get him.

Byrnes is the less attractive of the three. He had a good year last year, but I get the feeling that's they best he will ever get. That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, but it could be if he takes a step back and never reaches that level again. I'm not too worried about that -- I get the feeling that he will be relatively consistent for the next couple of years. The drawback with Byrnes is that he is somewhat limited as a defensive player.

I do believe that the Bucs will be making a trade before the start of the season, but I get the sneaky feeling that it will not be for one of the names listed above. My gut is telling me to lower my expectations. My money is on the Twins' Michael Restovich. He is looking like he might not even make the Twins roster coming out of spring. He seems more like the typical player the Bucs have been targeting: available with limited upside. Hopefully, I am wrong. I want to see management make a bold move -- the time is right.

<__trans phrase="Posted by"> <__trans phrase="at"> 7:29 AM | <__trans phrase="Permalink">